Since Boris Johnson scored his historic majority in 2019, Westminster observers are asking when he will call the next general election. Will he wait until the last moment in 2024, giving himself a full five years before pushing for a new mandate? Or he will call early elections, hoping to catch the opposition sooner Keira Starmer can the troops regroup?
Labor is preparing for early voting. On the sidelines of a conservative conference this week, there were rumors that the poll could be conducted in 2023 or even as early as next year. The pandemic and its economic and social impact have made the calculation extremely difficult. So what do Johnson’s team think?
If you talk to Tory ministers and strategists, they will understand that the country is going through a period of turmoil, trying to cope with the consequences. pandemic… The government needs time to lag in NHS procedures compared to the current size of more than five million so that the public can see that hospitals are safe and secure. In his presentation at the conferenceJohnson warned that this backlog is likely to get worse before it gets better.
There is also a backlog of cases pending in the Crown Court. The trial now stands at 60,000… A creaky criminal justice system, with police services already being criticized, is a dangerous backdrop for an election campaign and must be combated.
Cost of living
Senior Conservatives see the danger that the cost of living the crisis will turn into a full-blown crisis. Inflation is projected to potentially rise to 4 percent by Christmas as supermarkets run out of food, electricity bills are rising and shortage of gasoline at gas stations make everyday life an ordeal. Some of these problems are systemic in nature, such as a lack of Truck drivers – and it will probably take months or more to fix this problem.
Universal loan payments have just been cut by more than £ 1,000 a year for millions of households, and taxes are expected to rise from April on payments for NHS reforms and social assistance. Given that government policies are so clearly contributing to lower living standards, it would be a bold decision to call early elections before any additional tax revenues improve health and health conditions.
If conservatives can wait until 2024, they could potentially benefit from redrawing the election map. Final plans to redefine the parish boundaries are due in 2023, and under current proposals, Tory-dominated England will gain an additional 10 seats, while Scotland will lose two and Wales eight.
Johnson managed to provoke early elections in 2019 at a time when the country’s political system was stalled by Brexit and he was given a big mandate to break the deadlock and pull the UK out of the European Union.
But two years earlier, Theresa May announced an early election and lost the majority she started out with despite being 20 points ahead of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labor Party in the polls. Voters simply did not see the need for an early competition. This sentiment was seen in A Brand from Bristol, who reacted to the production crew when she spoke of the announcement of the election: “You’re kidding. No one. Oh, for heaven’s sake. Honestly, I hate it. Too much politics. ” The suspended parliament of 2017 still haunts ministers and officials. “We have to think about the Brand,” one of them said.
Johnson is in a happy position to wait and see. With a large majority in the House of Commons, he intends to repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and assume full control over the timing of the next elections. For now, at least senior members of Johnson’s team say they don’t expect him to travel to the country again until 2024.