Why the world is still on course for climate catastrophe

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The pledges announced to coincide with Cop26, including the zero-zero pledges from India, Saudi Arabia and Australia, mean global temperatures will rise by 1.8 ° C this century. according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)

As this figure is close to the level of 1.5 ° C, which is considered “safe” for the planet due to climate change, this was noted in many circles: the head of the IEA Fatih Birol described it as “big step forward“.

But the IEA’s analysis is based only on long-term promises, not on the policies that will be required to make those promises a reality.

A separate analysis of both policies and promises, think tank Climate Action Tracker (Cat) found that only 6 percent of promises are adequately supported by both policy and interim targets, which usually fall into 2030. Cat further believes that if we base temperature simulations solely on policy (i.e. what might happen), then the world is still on track for 2.7 ° C – a warming that would be catastrophic.

The authors of the report are scathing about the status quo, warning that “the implementation of local policies is progressing at a slow pace.” They add that “there is a huge gap in credibility, action and commitment that casts a long and dark shadow of doubt on the zero-zero goals set.”



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